The Russo-Ukraine War: One Year Later

Now that we're at the eve of the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I want to take a few moments to reflect. So, this is an introspective post focused primarily on my impressions of the weeks leading up to the invasion, and after the invasion began.One thing I want to be crystal clear about is that Russia had already been at war with Ukraine for eight years by that point, having invaded Crimea in late February 2014 (following the Maidan Revolution that caused Putin's preferred despot, Yanukovich, to flee Ukraine) and would annex Crimea shortly thereafter, as well as invade portions of the Donbas region. 

Late in the fall of 2021, Putin had published some rambling opinion piece that acted as a form of revisionist history in which he appeared to call for the reformation of the old Russian Empire. In a sense, I wasn't surprised, since Putin has consistently lamented the fall of the USSR, which was what the empire morphed into after the October Revolution in 1917. The tone was different this time. Putin seemed more strident and unhinged. As the year drew to an end, the US government was sounding the alarm that Putin appeared to be planning an invasion, and continued to sound that alarm throughout January and the first weeks of February of 2022. Russia was holding massive "training exercises" along the Ukrainian border not only with Russia but also Belarus. As convenient as it might have been to dismiss this move by Russia as some form of saber rattling, there was something sinister about the spectacle. There were also the Russian security demands, which also seemed entirely detached from reality, and hence impossible to satisfy. The mere thought of NATO throwing its eastern European members under the bus was ludicrous. With perhaps the exception of Hungary's current regime, I could not imagine any eastern European government or its people (as a general rule - there are always exceptions) to want to voluntarily be put at risk of ending up in another Soviet Bloc situation. 

Initially, Ukraine's President Volodomyr Zelinskyy appeared publicly dismissive of the intel that was no doubt being shared with his government. That seemed to go on through at least mid-February. Perhaps he was putting on what he saw as a necessary act in order to keep his fellow Ukrainians calm. Indeed, in the days leading up to the invasion, one could see news footage of serene winter scenes in Kyiv, Odesa, Mariupol, and elsewhere in those areas of Ukraine not already occupied by Russia. Western leaders and diplomats would continue to interface with Putin and Russian counterparts, but to no avail. The only apparent delay to the invasion that Putin appeared to agree to concerned the timing of the Winter Olympics games which were being held in China. In public at that point, Putin and Russian propagandists were claiming no invasion was forthcoming, and western leaders were spreading disinformation. 

Needless to say, my heart sank when the "leaders" of the two so-called "People's Republics" in Donetsk and Luhansk requested Russian military aid. That was the opening Putin would use as a pretext for the invasion. Although I am safely within the US, I happen to have friends who live in Poland, and who themselves have friends and in at least one case family, in Ukraine. Something bad could be coming their way if Russia were able to swiftly invade and occupy a fairly sizeable nation of 40 million people. Sure, Poland is a NATO member, with a sizeable NATO military presence, but given Putin's apparent ambitions, Poland was a target. 

Let me step back a moment. One of the things that I (like many others who probably should have known better) was under the impression that the Russian military had undergone a massive modernization effort over the last couple decades and its capabilities were second perhaps only to the US military. Ukraine started with only a fraction of the military personnel, weapons, ammo, and weapon systems compared to Russia, and much of what Ukraine had at its disposal was Soviet era. Conventional wisdom was that Ukraine didn't stand a chance against the mighty Russian military, and that Russia's dictator and military leaders would stop at nothing to achieve their objectives. Western leaders seemed to fear Russia's military might. That has affected many early decisions by western leaders and even more recent decisions. 

When news broke of the invasion, complete with air raid sirens in the wee hours of the 24th of February, let's just say my anxiety level was at its max. I kept checking live blogs, Reddit news feeds, and any other source that seemed reasonably reliable to get a feel for what was happening. At some point, I needed to sleep. I did have chores to do the next day, and I needed at least some minimal amount of rest to handle them. I fully expected to wake up to find that Zelinskyy and his family had been assassinated or had fled and sought asylum, and that Kyiv was well on its way to falling. Instead, something else happened. Zelinskyy was posting videos on Telegram that were defiant, and he began to make it clear that he was not going anywhere. The Ukrainian military was putting up a fight. It didn't take long to realize that the much-feared Russian military was less than it appeared to be prior to this invasion. The level of incompetence displayed by the Russian military was something to behold. Others have already well-documented the many problems Russia has shown in terms of logistics, training, and equipment. Within a couple days, I was probably one of those on social media calling for NATO to close the skies and declare Ukraine a no-fly zone. It had its risks, but the rewards potentially justified those risks. My gut at the time (as a layperson - I have no military expertise, but do try to follow the advice of legitimate experts) was that whatever threats Putin would make would have no follow-through and that NATO could actually facilitate ending the war early and in Ukraine's favor. I understood the irony of me turning into something of a war hawk. Turns out that as a matter of principle I despise powerful nations invading nations perceived as less powerful, regardless the pretext. 

I contacted my Polish friends to make sure that they were okay. Several of us had conversations about what was happening and our shared outrage over Putin's decisions. One of my friends, who was studying in the UK came back to Poland for a few weeks to volunteer at one of many centers housing Ukrainian refugees. We would chat about that experience. I learned a few Ukrainian phrases. New words became part of my vocabulary: vatniks, Orcs, and mobiks - for starters. I've used my news feeds for updates on what is going on with the war, and have used my admittedly small voice to advocate for providing Ukraine's military with everything it asks for and needs without delay. I stopped viewing Russia's military as being somehow special and powerful. Don't get me wrong. Russia's military has proven quite capable of committing unimaginable atrocities, and whenever the Russian military is short of supplies, its leaders simply throw as many bodies at the Ukrainians as possible. The sheer level of nihilism and incompetence is stunning.

Sometimes, I wonder about a passenger on a flight I took to Amsterdam in 2019, on my way to Rotterdam. He was an elderly man whose name I forget. He was on his way to a village in the eastern part of Ukraine to visit with some close friends. His journey would take him to Kyiv and then he'd be on passenger trains to get to his destination. Speaking with him was great. He reminded me a lot of my maternal grandfather in appearance and demeanor. He was very Christian, which is not me at all. We probably would have disagreed on some things. But we shared similar ideas about the importance of family and friendships, and we both enjoyed traveling and sharing our various adventures. His Ukrainian friends had been very important to him for decades, and this was possibly his last good chance to see them all one more time. So instead of just vegging to whatever action films my airline's entertainment system would have available, I enjoyed a wonderful conversation with someone as we passed the time between meals and our eventual landing. Since the start of this invasion, I've wondered about my airline acquaintance and how he is doing. I wonder about his friends and their families. Are they safe? Are they displaced? I'll never know the answers, but those questions will nag at me for some time to come. 

I want to say more in the near future, as my own very hectic schedule permits. In the meantime, Slava Ukraini!