The Books of Bokonon

Okay, since I am not well and can't really sleep, I will post a couple videos. I'll start off with Jon Stewart as he tries to cut through the crap old Trump and Vance pulled last Friday - an event that still has me muttering Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: The pro wrestling metaphor is fitting, actually. That's about as sophisticated as Trump and Vance can manage. And the Russian government and its state controlled media are jumping for joy. I'll finish with Jimmy Kimmel who had his own reaction to whatever old Trump's SOTU address was.

Rachel Maddow lays it out. Call it a thought experiment, or call it just asking questions. It doesn't really matter. Clearly someone is benefitting from actions at the White House now that Trump has been reinstalled.

I'll lead by posting a link to a blog post I think might be worth your while. The blogger I've known primarily as The Analyst on Telegram has been moving over to Bluesky and has hosted longer posts on his own blog.  The Analyst's title is certainly intended to provoke a reaction. The reality is that all governments fall eventually. It's never a matter of if but when. Towards the end, The Analyst makes clear that predicting the exact moment that this iteration of Russia led by Putin is impossible. But if one reads through the post carefully, one will appreciate the various economic and geopolitical headwinds the Putin regime faces.  The economic picture is grim. The ruble has been losing value for much of this year, and plunged recently to its lowest level since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although the ruble recovered a bit, it is still north of 100 rubles to one US dollar, and there is little hope that aside from maybe another dead cat bou...

See the graph below: “If panic occurs now (and it can happen simply due to fear among the Russian population, say, through social media rumors), everything could collapse in a matter of days.” - Economist “The Russian economy is indeed on the brink of collapse and disintegration.“ [image or embed] — Jason Jay Smart ( @jjsmart.bsky.social ) November 27, 2024 at 11:57 AM We've heard this before back in 2022 when the first sanctions were rolled out and the Ruble briefly plummeted in value. Although the central bank has been quite adept at adjusting for sanctions up to a point, there is only so much a central bank can do. A devalued currency and inflation go hand in hand. There are remedies for inflation but those remedies are painful. The obvious one is to increase interest rates, which the central bank has certainly done. Right now if you are a consumer or borrower in Russia, it sucks to be you. Add to that the inevitable shortages that come with sanctions and shortages in the l...

Zelenskyy is clear about Ukraine's need for security, and has point-blank stated that having some nuclear weapons available would be the next best thing to joining NATO . That has certainly created some consternation among Ukraine's allies and enemies alike. I'll turn things over to a blogger who goes by the name The Analyst to break this recent development down for us. ‘HE SHOULD NOT HAVE SAID IT’ That was the reaction that came thick and fast from even some of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. They argue that it upset allies and Ukraine is a member of the 1968 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, which it joined on December 5 1994. However you have to give just 90 days notice to leave the agreement. One of the biggest concerns is that Zelensky handed Putin a propaganda victory - I don’t think the Kremlin ever reacted so fast to something Zelensky has said.  It clearly rattled Putin’s cage and a torrent of escalation talk spewed forth. First off he said Russia must redouble it...

Never mind that Russia's Putin regime invaded Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea as it fought a low-scale war in the Donbas that had been on-going prior to 2022. Never mind that the same Russian regime ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and have been engaging in human rights abuses ever since. In Trump's deranged and demented mind, somehow it was the president of the invaded country who allegedly started the war with Russia . Yeah, it makes no sense and is completely divorced from reality. But that's Trump for you. It's also a harbinger of what to expect if Trump is reinstalled in the White House. Trump will cede Ukrainian territory to Putin against the will of the duly elected Ukrainian government and the will of the Ukrainian people. Bet on it. Then again, it would be in character for Trump to blame the abused spouse for being beaten (or worse) or the rape survivor for allowing the rape to happen. That's what you get from a former ...

    Pictured above: some useful idiots who have just lost their YouTube channels. Turns out that failing to disclose sponsors to YouTube is a big no-no and will get you banned for the platform. Sucks to be them.   The above images come from Ukraine Journal, a Telegram news channel that I trust. Here are the links if you use Telegram. And if not, no worries. Maybe subscribe to news channels on Telegram so you don't have to. The last link has this caption: Tayler Hansen, one of the MAGA influencers who (knowingly or unknowingly) was accepting money from the Russians to promote Russian propaganda and help Trump win stated that YouTube has deleted his channel and banned him for life. It is a violation of YouTube's terms of service to accept sponsorships and not disclose it to YouTube and their own audience. These "useful idiot" creators are claiming the money they got was for liscensing and it isn't undisclosed sponsorships, but it looks like YouTube isn't buy...

As some in the media might have said a couple decades ago, this scandal has legs. The couple who provided the money to fund Tenet Media have been charged for violation of sanctions and money laundering . It's believed they are back in Russia, so good luck with the extradition. As Kevin Drum says, the Russians have been targeting the far right in the US all along . The right-wing influencers who accepted considerable sums of the now-defunct Tenet Media were at best useful idiots . I guess if you pay people enough money, they'll look away and pretend like everything is legit? I have a hard time buying the excuses of ignorance . Then again, from what I do know of these influencers, if any of them were to come up with an original thought, it would die of loneliness.  As of now , the Tenet Media YouTube channel has been taken down and the couple who took Russian money to effectively bankroll the output of the comrades who spewed Kremlin talking points, while not yet facing charges, ...

Anyone who takes at face value Putin's claims that he would prefer Harris to Trump as US President really needs to have their head examined. It's safe to say that Harris is going to pursue a national security agenda very similar to out-going President Biden, and neither of them plan on giving Putin's regime a free pass. Putin lies all the time, and he is not going to suddenly change his stripes, especially at his age. If you have taken even just one introductory psychology class you will probably remember that past behavior predicts future behavior. Russia has a history of interfering in US elections in order to put the thumb on the scale for Trump. Why change now? The recent news about a Russian operation to covertly fund right-wing influencers to produce viral pro-Trump video content is yet the most recent example of Kremlin-based election interference efforts. Disinformation is a Russian specialty. Make no mistake: Putin arguably needs Trump to be reinstalled in the Wh...

The following strikes me as a decent enough primer on the Ukrainian offensive. It'll only take a few minute to view the video. Since there are a lot of folks (including - maybe especially - milbloggers) who have questioned what the Ukrainian military is up to and what would be gained by this mission should it succeed, hopefully some light is shed. Obviously only the civilian and military leadership of Ukraine know for sure what their objectives are, but getting an idea of the lay of the land and a map or two can give you an idea of what controlling railroad lines in Kursk could do to mess up Russian logistics. That in itself would be a good thing. To the extent Ukrainian troops treat residents in the occupied towns and villages well, that will undercut Russian propaganda claims about Ukrainians, which also strikes me as a good thing. Although not mentioned in this video, oblasts like Kursk and Belgorod have significant Ukrainian ethnic residents, and at one point, these oblasts - o...

The Guardian had recently mothballed its Ukraine War live blog . It had been a daily resource to one that appeared irregularly at best. Wars are not entertainment, and their coverage is an obligation that goes well beyond advertising dollars. In the absence of the live blog, I have increased my reliance on my Telegram channels. Turns out a lot happens, even when the world isn't paying attention. For the time being, The Guardian's live blog is back. I doubt it will last, once this latest offensive loses its ability to grab headlines.

One of the things I am a stickler for is getting informed opinions that are more than just copium. It doesn't matter what issue, it's just a healthier way to face life. One Telegram channel I appreciate a great deal regarding the war in Ukraine is simply called Military & Strategic . The author of most of the posts simply refers to himself or herself as The Analyst. The person is at minimum very familiar with the far east of Europe, and seems knowledgeable about military strategy and tactics. This is not someone with a crystal ball, but rather someone who does offer an informed perspective and a willingness to communicate truths that are unpleasant when needed. The Analyst was initially very skeptical about the latest incursion into Kursk, and their concerns are understandable and within the mainstream. Ukraine has very limited resources, so pulling troops off the front where the Ukrainians really do have a serious fight on their hands to invade Russia does appear at first ...

Yesterday, while taking a bit of a work break, I looked at my Telegram channels (I subscribe to several covering the Russo-Ukraine War, primarily from a Ukrainian perspective, along with a couple general military conflict channels that are arguably less sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause) and noticed that apparently Ukrainian troops had crossed the border into the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts in Russia. Russian border security and air defense got caught with their pants down. At the time, it was not clear if this was some sort of quick incursion by the Russian Volunteer Corps or some other anti-Putin militia operating within Ukraine or an incursion by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with some greater objective.  As of today, it appears that the invasion of Kursk and Belgorod oblasts is on-going . There have been some conflicting reports about which villages the Ukrainian military has occupied. Sudzsha, a border village in the Kursk oblast was either completely or partially occupied by Ukr...

A Russian revolution ending the Russo-Ukraine war? Oh, that would be so wonderful. As Zeihan explains in a short video, it's complicated. Any sort of palace coup is a non-starter, apparently. The people Putin has surrounded himself with generally view the world no differently from him, and they come from the same KGB/FSB background. So, don't expect the elites to necessarily change stripes and turn on Putin. A mass uprising that becomes a revolution? Zeihan doesn't see that as a prospect in the short term. I don't either. Yes, the sanctions are causing some discomfort, but not to the extent that a critical mass would very violently demand a change. Will the regime crumble? Eventually. In the meantime, Ukrainians must continue to fight for their existence, and anyone living in the nations that successfully declared their independence when the USSR crumbled at the start of the 1990s need to keep a watchful eye for what might be lurking on their borders. Regrettably, we li...

 Ever since Russia attempted a full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning on February 24, 2022, I've searched for and found numerous resources I consider to be reliable. Obviously, I have my own perspective on the current phase of a war that started almost a decade ago, and the sources I seek out are ones that likely share my perspective. There's a difference between having an editorial slant and being a propaganda outlet. I have no room in my life for the latter. The sources I rely upon are ones willing to report the good, bad, and ugly as well as can be expected under obviously difficult circumstances. So let's get to it. First, I rely a lot on the Institute for the Study of War . ISW currently covers both the war between Russia and Ukraine and the current unrest in Iran that has been ongoing since last summer. For now let's stick with Ukraine. The coverage is based on any information that is open-source and publicly available, with relevant links provided. ISW is a US ...

Here is something we need to keep an eye on, and it's something I feel is stating the obvious: Russian-inspired and Russian-backed influencers are not resting in their efforts to turn regular citizens in various parts of Europe and the US against the Ukrainian effort to defend itself from a full-scale Russian invasion, and against NATO itself. Martin Longman focuses primarily on the influencers in the US , and Reuters covers the influence campaign in Germany .  Many of the people Martin Longman refers to are political influencers who were once considered part of what counts for a far-left in the US, but who now are embracing and are embraced by far-right political entities. Some were writers I had some respect for, which is something I regret. Many of us who were left of center in the US were livid about the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and were equally livid about economic policies that left so many fellow Americans behind, and several of these individuals were among the ...