Allan Lichtman unveils his prediction for the winner of the US Presidential election. Drumroll please....

I'll admit I had never heard of Dr. Allan Lichtman prior to 2016, when he correctly predicted that Donald Trump would become the next US President. My reaction was along the lines of "who is this guy" and "you've got to be kidding me". But I learned who he was and realized that he knows his stuff. Lichtman uses a set of thirteen keys (answered as true or false) developed by him and a colleague in 1981. This model ignores polling data, which is the stuff that most take for gospel. Instead, the model is guided by historical precedent. As someone who relied on polling aggregators at the time (e.g., 538), I can see how his approach to prediction seems unsophisticated to the data wonks. 

Here's the thing: he's used those keys to make the right prediction for nearly all US Presidential elections since 1984. That kind of track record establishes his credibility. We ignore his predictions at our peril. A lot of hay has been made out of the Democratic Party losing one of the thirteen keys (incumbency) when Biden exited the Presidential race in late July. But, as Lichtman would point out, incumbency is only one of thirteen keys. What about the rest of the keys? Let's watch the video, shall we?

Spoiler alert: he predicts that Kamala Harris will be the next President of the US once all is said and done this November. That's good news. However, let's bear in mind that a prediction is just that: a prediction. A good prediction will give us an idea of what should happen, but it is not a guarantee that the outcome will happen as predicted. Simply put, predictions can be wrong. But right now, I would much rather be Harris than Trump right now. 

Now to state the obvious: I want this prediction to come true. I am guessing if you are visiting this blog, you share my sentiment. How do we make sure that this prediction comes true? At minimum, make sure to vote. If you have time and/or money, do some volunteering and donate to some campaigns, including the Harris campaign. Let's be cautiously optimistic. This campaign is very much winnable for Harris, and her campaign clearly has the momentum, and apparently history on her side. There are no guarantees, but there is good reason for hope.

I hope Allan Lichtman is right about this year's Presidential election, and I also hope that he does well in next year's Senior Olympics.