Allan Lichtman's reaction to Tuesday's debate

I had hoped to have this out a few hours ago, but my internet went out for a bit. Allan Lichtman, as you all know, has already offered his prediction for this election year, and Harris has the majority of his keys already. Based on his criteria, it's not even close. Harris is his projected winner in November.

About the debate itself? The professor doesn't even think it's close. Donald Trump had an awful night. Kamala Harris had her share of missed opportunities but was otherwise competent (which means she generally interacted well with the moderators and managed to stay on target throughout the debate). The moderators, in his view, did poorly. It's a view I happen to share. Neither of the moderators distinguished themselves Tuesday night. I'll offer a few bonus points for some efforts to fact check Trump in the moment. They still gave Trump more time to speak, and were more prone to unmute Trump's microphone than Harris'. I had low expectations about how debate moderators would do in terms of taming Trump, and these moderators didn't perform as poorly as I had expected. They managed to look good while going through the motions and didn't let Trump completely overwhelm the proceedings. We'll give them participation trophies for their effort. 

Ultimately Dr. Lichtman does not take polls into account when making his predictions, nor does he take debate performance into account. Lichtman has already said what he has to say. This election is Kamala Harris' to lose. In hindsight, he will probably say "the election was tight but I was right." For that to happen, remember to vote when you are eligible to, especially in the swing states. I doubt he'd be all that impressed that Taylor Swift finally endorsed Kamala Harris. The bottom line is that Trump's debate performance was a disaster and Harris, in spite of some missed opportunities, performed well. We're less than two months away from the big day. Let's be ready. Here is the video:


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Ozymandias

When I think of our current era and all of its dictators and would-be dictators, there is a poem by Percy Bysshe Shelley that rings as true now as it did when he wrote it:     I met a traveller from an antique land,     Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone     Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,     Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,     And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,     Tell that its sculptor well those passions read     Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,     The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;     And on the pedestal, these words appear:     My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;     Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!     Nothing beside remains. Round the decay     Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and ...
Read more

Desantis still wants to be Mussolini when he grows up

The Florida governor dictator has been working like madness to kill a ballot initiative that has already been given the go-ahead and which is already on actual ballots, weeks before election day. He is desperate to keep that 6-week abortion ban in place. It's the same ban Trump supports. The tactics Desantis uses are disturbing and anti-democratic: sending secret police to ballot initiative signatories, threatening media outlets that run ads in favor of the initiative, and even cooking up an excuse to invalidate any votes for the initiative. Read more here . What we are witnessing in Florida as is the case in other GOP dominated parts of the US is best understood as follows: GOP politicians don't care about the give and take that comes with governing. They want raw power to rule, period.
Read more