The fallout from Dobbs appears far from over

For Donald Trump, whose Supreme Court nominees overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the Dobbs decision is becoming the Ghost of Christmas Past. That may be a bit of an understatement. The Ghost of Christmas Present has entered the chat this election season as well. Marcy Wheeler of emptywheel fame has a top-rate analysis of the consequences of Trump's decision to pursue a hard-line anti-abortion policy during his term in office, which now dog Trump and his running mate on the campaign trail as we enter the last couple months of the campaign. She is justifiably critical of media outlets' coverage of Trump's logical contortions in the aftermath of Dobbs, noting that Trump's problem is ultimately not one of "messaging" (there's no way to dress up grossly unpopular anti-abortion policies with different slogans). Trump's problem is that the policy choices his administration made are coming back to haunt him. This is a deeper story about Trump's actions, and the actions of policymakers affecting real people and not Trump's failure to put lipstick on the proverbial pig. 

Two years on, after the damage from the Dobbs decision has been done, we see efforts by citizens in GOP-led states and in swing states to place ballot initiatives that would protect the rights of women to make their own choices about their reproductive health - some that have already succeeded (Kansas and Ohio for example) and several more that will be on the ballot this November (regrettably my state's effort was stymied in a manner that would impress the old USSR Politburo when confronted with popular movements). Most of these initiatives will pass. I am a bit skeptical about the chances of the Florida abortion initiative passing due to the threshold for passage (60% of the vote in favor is a fairly high bar to clear). In that state, the outcome will be close. I'll remain hopeful.

Trump has no idea how to respond. He wants to walk back the extreme positions he's taken but he also doesn't want to walk them back. If he could reverse himself in a way that seemed even remotely credible, maybe he'd get a bump in the polls. But that would require him to account for his actions that have led to a disaster for a significant proportion of our nation's women and girls. He can't do that. If he embraces the extremes, he further alienates anyone outside his base. And he acts today like a candidate who wants to have it both ways. He will say, for example that Florida's 6-week abortion ban is too extreme (messaging) but at the same time states that he will vote against the Florida ballot initiative that would largely reverse that ban (here his behaviors contradict the so-called messaging). 

Ultimately as a voter I don't care about messaging. I care about actions. Past actions predict future behavior. We know how Trump and his allies have behaved in the past. Project 2025 provides a roadmap for how they would act if they seize control of the White House. Trump and the GOP can contort themselves all they like. It does not change the facts on the ground. The like of NYT and CNN may not be willing to honestly address the elephant in the room. That's a media failure. Reproductive rights were on the line in each of the last two presidential elections and are on the line again in the face of even more extreme policies by the GOP. We know their behavior. They will not change. Knowing that, we can do the rational thing and reject the vile and anti-American policies they wish to foist upon us.