Don't say that you weren't warned

On the blogosphere, on social media, and among the relatively more responsible media outlets, the message is loud and clear: Donald Trump tried to rule like a fascist the last time he was in the White House, led a self-coup in January 6th 2021, and has used the rhetoric of dictators throughout his current campaign. Unlike Republican presidential candidates of the past, Trump has embraced right-wing extremism, full stop. It's not even up for debate if one can grasp it. One of the tragedies that repeatedly occurs when a nation devolves from a democracy to a dictatorship is that so many live with this delusion that the dictator and his thugs will never come after them. And then they find out they aren't so safe either. That is a possible future for us in the United States. That this is even a realistic possible future is one that keeps me up at night.  

With that in mind, here is a quick roundup of articles and blog posts to consider.

Trump: "I need the kind of generals Hitler had" (The Atlantic - gift article)

Burying a Mexican veteran (LGM - Scott Lemieux) focuses on Trump's disdain for our military veterans. Paul Campos offers his own perspective here.

A fascist campaign (LGM - Scott Lemieux) - this is pretty self-explanatory. Give it a read. 

The atavistic attractions of fascism (LGM - Paul Campos) is worthwhile for a critique of those who simply cannot understand the attraction to Trump's thuggish rhetoric or the reality that awaits us if Trump is back in the White House. I study the psychological side of authoritarianism. I have an idea of the allure of fascism for those among us who are authoritarians. 

Trump's GOP is running on a platform of freeing seditionists and cop assailants (Emptywheel) - this one is from a few days ago, but it is worth a look as a reminder of what awaits us if we are not careful.

The wannabe commander in chief's hatred for the military (Hullabaloo) - Thank goodness for Heather Digby Parton. She's largely relying on the same Atlantic article I referenced above earlier. It's good to have her take.

Again - in sane times any public figure who disparages our troops and veterans, who shows contempt for democratic principles and norms, and who would certainly run the White House as a criminal enterprise would be run out of town. We do not live in sane times. That does not mean things are hopeless - not by a long shot. But we do need to look at what we are facing as a nation and be as realistic in our appraisal of the situation. 

So for me, this post is meant not as doom and gloom, but as a warning. Heed my warning, show up to vote, and donate and volunteer if you can (not all of us can, of course). Ignore my warning at your own peril. If the worst comes to pass, I will tell you I told you so. If not, I am more than happy to accept the accusation of overreacting. 

We've had some recent elections that looked really close or were really close based on polling data. The 2012 election that saw Obama re-elected after being often a bit behind in the polls comes to mind. That one worried me at the time more because of the potential fate of the Affordable Care Act, and not because I had reason to think Mitt Romney (the GOP standard bearer in 2012) was a fascist. He wasn't. Far from it. At worst, he had some problems with being truthful, but then again I've said that about most normal politicians for as long as I can remember. The 2016 election had an outcome that was gut-wrenching. The polls showed Hillary Clinton consistently ahead of Trump, and she barely lost the electoral vote, while winning the popular vote (we really are long overdue for getting rid of the Electoral College). 2020 was traumatizing for its own reasons, and the outcome of the election, while favorable, was underwhelming and we did have to endure a coup attempt in order to transition to a Biden Presidency. 

These elections all had something in common: polling was often consistently painting a particular picture but was off. Obama was on track to be a one-term President according to the polls, and yet he got a second term. Trump was not supposed to be elected President in 2016, and was supposed to go on to the next grift. And yet we had to endure a reign of error and terror for his term. Biden was supposed to win big and 2020 was supposed to be a 2018-style Blue Wave, but the final results were a narrower Biden victory and where the Dems came close to losing the House and did not make the overwhelming gains in the Senate predicted by the polls (although a 50/50 split was better than a GOP-led Senate). The polls should not be close this year, but they are. 

My thinking is to treat pollsters much the way I treat social science research in my area of specialty. There are some quality pollsters (albeit far to few and far between) and then there are a lot that are mediocre at best if not downright low-quality. My corner of the social sciences is riddled with poor quality research that later on ends up being debunked. We have some high quality research as well, which is what gives me enough hope to stay in that line of work. I've heard the phrase "garbage in, garbage out" used quite a bit over the years, and that's probably one way to approach a lot of polling data. I say that not to be dismissive or cynical but to suggest a healthy skepticism. We won't know what the pollsters are missing until the election is over. Will this be a repeat of 2012 or 2016? That question will vex a lot of us for the next couple weeks. But I do suggest looking at other developed nations and see where there have been disconnects between polling and the actual results. According to polls in France earlier this summer, Marine Le Pen's National Rally Party (originally National Front, which had neo-Nazi origins) was supposed to be sharing power with Macron's center-right party. That clearly did not happen, by a long shot. The polls predicted a landslide for Labour in the UK, and although it was definitely a landslide victory, it fell noticeably short of what a number of pollsters suggested. Although maybe not quite a developed nation, the former Soviet republic known as Moldova had an election this past weekend that called for the nation's President to possibly win in the first round of voting, thus eliminating the need for a runoff election. She led when the votes were counted, but was far short of the 50% plus she needed to avoid a runoff. Moldova also had a referendum on joining the EU that was supposed to pass by a wide margin. It just barely passed. The upshot is that we should be looking at the polls that flood our news feeds with a healthy dose of skepticism and make sure that we either don't get so complacent that we end up with an unwanted outcome after the election is over or so discouraged that we stay home and end up with the very outcome we did not want to occur. 

I'll close on a hopeful note (again courtesy of Heather Digby Parton): Are we gonna be okay? It's worth a read. I've trusted her instincts as a blogger for a very long time. She offers in that post an analysis of what the state of polling looks like and the state of a shifting electorate. She seems hopeful, and not in the "wishful thinking" sense of being hopeful. I think we can take a realistic appraisal of what we are facing and maintain a realistic sense of hope. We are going to have several electoral cycles after this one that will be just as pivotal as this one. That comes with any turbulent era when there is a partisan realignment happening in real time. Kamala Harris is a solid candidate who picked a solid running mate in Tim Walz. She has run a good campaign in a very short time frame. We can quibble about her approach to finding common cause with disaffected Republican voters instead of courting Arab-American voters in swing states who are understandably and justifiably upset with Israel's efforts to make Gaza unlivable in the wake of last year's Hamas terrorist attack. If she loses, many pundits will look at that decision as a self-own. The truth is that we don't know if it is in this moment. That said, she's run an honest solid campaign in which she's stuck to the issues and stuck to her guns, while Trump has been a disaster as a candidate - even more so than in 2016 or 2020, and he set the bar so low for himself. I will be voting early in the next few days. I already have my plan. Do you?