Time for a bit more hopium?

Generally, I don't get very excited about polls, but when some of the data counter a prevailing media narrative, I become interested. That might not necessarily mean that the polling data are correct, but the data can require us to question the narrative. For example, the prevailing media "wisdom" is that Harris is losing Black men and Hispanic men to Trump this election cycle when compared to Biden's performance with these two demographic groups in 2020. So, is that a narrative to fatalistically accept? Let's take a look:

It appears that at minimum, Harris is holding her own with Black and Hispanic men this cycle, contrary to the prevailing narrative. The narrative that Trump has made inroads with young adult men seems to be real, and the gender gap is especially noticeable with this particular age demographic. Harris is also faring a bit more poorly with self-identified independents compared to Biden in 2020. There are some real unknowns with that group - including how many of these individuals are white, men, and have no college degree. Overall, though, if this poll is to be believed, I'd rather be Kamala Harris right now. As always, take polling results with the appropriate grain of salt and plan on voting if you have not already. Early voting started in my state last week, and I voted in person at my local county courthouse this past Friday.


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