The anti-incumbent trend continues

One of the patterns that began to emerge in 2023 was the fall of majority parties and coalitions in practically every advanced democracy on the planet. That trend has continued throughout this year. Even those cases where a majority party stays in power, it has tended to be a considerably weaker majority than before. India comes to mind (smaller majority limiting Presidential power), and Ireland's governing coalition appeared to survive this weekend's vote. I've been following other elections in Iceland and Romania this weekend. Iceland just voted out its governing party and voted in a social democratic party as its governing party. All I have right now with regard to Romania's parliamentary elections are exit polls as of this writing. It appears that the social democrats will have the largest plurality, but the far right has made some noticeable gains. 

If you ask if there is any ideological shift globally, it seems to me difficult to see any coherent pattern. Arguably far-right parties have been better positioned to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction, but that has not been a given. Sometimes far right parties fare very well. In other cases center-left and leftist parties are winning the day. So what gives? Your guess is as good as mine. My own pet theories is that these elections have been our first post-pandemic elections, and have been held during or in the immediate aftermath of not only the massive deaths and psychological trauma caused by COVID-19, but also in the immediate aftermath of all of the supply chain problems caused by the pandemic, leading to inflation, shortages, some social unrest, etc. Under those circumstances, the incumbent governing party or coalition is likely going to take the fall. There is no true defying of political gravity to be found. As noted, even when a governing party or coalition manages to stay in power or appear to be poised to stay in power, it's operating with smaller majorities with less room to maneuver. 

The basic takeaway is that we're probably going to be in this cycle of change elections for a bit longer. With regard to US politics, I'll simply say that there is very little reason to have expected us to be exceptional. We are exposed to the same forces as everyone else. We had a botched COVID-19 response, and like most governments, ours generally tried to rely on economic stimulus during the first couple years of the pandemic, which was good at keeping consumer demand up, but not so great if there are fewer workers capable of producing goods and services in the middle of lockdowns and quarantines. So inflation and the usual instruments to contain inflation (our central bank increased its prime rate considerably) left any of us who are living paycheck to paycheck feeling considerable economic pain. Most central banks seemed to react slowly to inflationary pressure, which did no favors to governing parties anywhere that stable democracies exist. That's just the basic reality. When I say that Harris or Biden probably never stood a chance this election cycle, it's based on this global backdrop. Knowing that should not mean that we relax. We have a big task ahead as we protect our democratic institutions. But we can at least say that given the circumstances, we got a predictable outcome.

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