The Russo-Ukraine War, Four Years On

As of this writing, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia is still on-going. This was a war started by Putin that was supposed to end in three days with perhaps a handful of weeks needed to consolidate control over Ukraine. Putin's been clear for a while that Ukraine is not a real nation or that Ukrainians have a unique culture. The Russians started with what was supposed to be a formidable military on paper and vastly outnumbered Ukrainian forces. So the conventional wisdom ahead of the war was that Ukraine did not stand a chance and that Zelinskyy needed to find the nearest exit if he wanted to remain alive. And yet here we are with a war in which the front lines have changed little since the summer of 2022.

The warning signs were there in the autumn of 2021. The Russia and Belarus governments had amassed large numbers of troops and equipment along their borders with Ukraine, ostensibly as part of some sort of joint military exercise, and despite what Putin had been saying in Russia, Putin and his lackeys kept reassuring western leaders that no large-scale invasion was planned. Then again, Putin has never been one to believe at face value.

The scene during those last weeks before the invasion were surreal. Although the US and UK's intelligence agencies had been sounding the alarms, there was no indication that they were being taken seriously, and at least in public even Zelinskyy seemed dismissive of any talk of a full-scale invasion. I still remember scenes of families out in Mariupol going about their business, ice skating, etc just days prior to the invasion. Any coverage I would see of Ukraine seemed like this "normal" when it was clear that things were decidedly far from normal. 

The invasion began in the morning of February 24, 2022 in Ukraine (it was still late night in the US), and the initial footage looked bleak for Ukraine. And then the Russian military made its share of unforced errors that gave the Ukrainian military and people a fighting chance. The thing about asymmetrical warfare is that the larger invading military simply cannot adapt (Russia seems to be mired in old Soviet doctrine, and Ukraine was only beginning to break free of that doctrine). Ukrainians proved to be ready to improvise and we have seen what started as a cottage industry to build drones turn into a full-fledged industry in its own right - one that will change how wars are fought going forward. Within a small handful of weeks during the late winter and early spring in 2022, Russia had retreated from much of the territory it initially occupied. News of Russian atrocities would circulate (along with plenty of evidence) that will certainly not be forgot.

I have no idea how this all plays out. Right now conventional wisdom is that Putin can keep this going for the rest of this year and perhaps into 2027. There is little evidence that Russia is anywhere near a breakthrough, and Ukraine continues to hold the line. Thankfully, Ukraine is becoming less reliant on the good graces of the US, which under Trump has proven to be an unreliable ally. Most other NATO nations remain as they have good allies, even with their own limitations (most European nations are in the process of reviving their military spending as the US has begun to turn inward and Trump has been as he was in his first term a Putin ally). I expect that Putin cannot simply back down at this point. He has had an obsession with Ukraine for as long as I've been aware of him and he cannot appear to be weak on the homefront if he wants to maintain his grip on power in Russia. He'll keep sending troops until the money runs out, I suppose. And Russia's economy is in a state of crisis, with inflation, high interest rates, and a central bank holding it all together with ductape. Russia's most reliable commodity - oil - doesn't sell for the price or the quantities it once did. Ukrainian drones have damaged much of that oil and natural gas industrial infrastructure in Russia. Until relatively recently, the more privileged Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg were largely spared from the worst of the war. Those sent into battle largely came from regions that were impoverished and not necessarily ethnic Russian. Generally those most likely to experience drone strikes were in regions that either bordered Ukraine or regions that are hubs for oil and natural gas, or that have some critical infrastructure for getting to supplies to the front line. Now there is no region left that is truly immune to drone strikes - even when it may take some creativity to smuggle them in. Muscovites may find themselves suddenly more prone to become mobiks. And small and large businesses representing critical industries for day to day life are going bankrupt as Russia develops into a strictly wartime economy - albeit with fewer financial reserves at its disposal as time wears on.

I am cautiously optimistic about Ukraine's prospects. In saying that, make note that the sheer amount of damage that this war has done to Ukraine will take easily a generation to fully repair, and the psychological wounds will be carried around for a lifetime. In the meantime, glory to Ukraine and glory to the heroes.